The same argument comes up every March Madness Selection Sunday: more teams believe they should be in the NCAA men’s tournament than there are spots available in the 68-team field.
Consider Buzz Williams, the coach of Texas A&M, who three years ago wrote a nine-page argument claiming that the Aggies were unfairly excluded and demanding that the selection procedure be changed. Following a low number of its teams making the cut last year, the Big East voiced its frustration.
The main cause for frustration this year was the bubble teams that were excluded in favor of North Carolina. Due to their 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games and a lack of wins over other anticipated tournament teams, many bracket experts had predicted that the Tar Heels would just miss the cut. The selection committee, however, had a different opinion and awarded North Carolina (22-13) one of the last at-large bids. This was probably because of their excellent schedule and top-40 ranking among important measures.
While North Carolina reveled in its March Madness Selection Sunday success, several other teams on the bubble faced disappointment. Let’s look at the most unexpected exclusions from this year’s NCAA tournament lineup.
1. West Virginia (19-13)
- KenPom: 53 | NET: 51 | Q1: 6-10 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 5-0
West Virginia’s premature exit from the Big 12 tournament proved detrimental. A shocking first-round defeat to last-place Colorado caused the Mountaineers to plummet from a secure tournament position to being left out entirely.
This exclusion is surprising, given West Virginia’s impressive early-season performance, which featured victories over Gonzaga and Arizona. The team also managed to navigate the loss of key guard Tucker DeVries and finished at .500 in the challenging Big 12.
However, their struggles in the latter part of the season ultimately sealed their fate. The Mountaineers recorded only a 6-9 record in the second half of the season, failing to secure a single win against any team projected for the NCAA tournament during that period. Despite their strong start, the selection committee ultimately felt that West Virginia had not done enough in the final stretch to warrant a place in the tournament.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (19-13)
- KenPom: 48 | NET: 54 | Q1: 4-13 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 5-0
The Indiana Hoosiers’ season took a significant turn when head coach Mike Woodson announced in early February that he would resign at the end of the season, a choice made under increasing pressure from fans and the university. Ironically, this announcement coincided with the team beginning to display the potential of a preseason top-25 squad that many had anticipated.
They achieved an unexpected victory against Big Ten champion Michigan State, triumphed over their rivals Purdue, and narrowly defeated fellow bubble team Ohio State. They even came close to upsetting Michigan and UCLA. However, despite this late-season resurgence, the damage from earlier in the season had already been done. A challenging midseason stretch, where they lost seven out of eight games, left them just shy of securing an NCAA tournament spot.
With four Quadrant 1 victories, Indiana demonstrated its ability to compete at a high level, but it required numerous attempts to reach that point. Their overall performance metrics fell short, and finishing four games under .500 against elite competition ultimately determined their fate. Woodson nearly led the team to his third NCAA tournament in four years, but in the end, it just wasn’t enough.
3. Boise State (24-10)
- KenPom: 50 | NET: 43 | Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 10-1
As March Madness Selection Sunday approached, Boise State felt confident about securing a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Broncos had crafted a solid non-conference schedule, achieving victories against teams like Clemson and Saint Mary’s. They also notched 14 wins in a tough Mountain West conference and advanced to the championship game, defeating two of the league’s top contenders along the way.
So, what led to their exclusion? The answer may be traced back to a significant setback—a Quadrant 4 loss to a struggling Boston College team in November. A last-second step-back three-pointer resulted in a 63-61 defeat during the Cayman Islands Classic title match, and this misstep may have swayed the selection committee’s decision.
Head coach Leon Rice expressed his disappointment, questioning whether one loss from months ago should dictate their postseason prospects. However, in the competitive landscape of bubble teams, every game is crucial. For Boise State, that solitary November misstep could have been the deciding factor between celebrating in March and watching from the sidelines.
4. UC Irvine (28-6)
KenPom: 65 | NET: 60 | Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 12-3 | Q4: 11-0
UC Irvine’s aspirations for an NCAA tournament spot faded in the last ten minutes of the Big West championship, as UC San Diego surged ahead to secure a 75-61 win. This defeat not only marked the end of the Anteaters’ season but also dashed any hopes of the Big West earning a second tournament bid.
Throughout the season, UC Irvine established its reputation through relentless defense, but the lack of standout statistics or a significant non-conference victory left their chances for an at-large bid precarious. Head coach Russell Turner seemed to acknowledge this reality even before the game concluded.
“It’s undeniable the devastating feeling of falling short of the goal of playing in March Madness,” Turner said. “We knew if we won we would reach the mountaintop and if we did not win, like we didn’t tonight, we would feel like we failed.”
5. Ohio State (17-15)
KenPom: 39 | NET: 41 | Q1: 6-11 | Q2: 3-4 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0
Reflecting on the season, Ohio State appeared to have a surprisingly straightforward—albeit narrow—route to securing an NCAA tournament spot as they approached the Big Ten tournament. Despite a tumultuous regular season marked by missed chances, the Buckeyes still had a shot at an at-large bid.
Their first task was to secure a victory against an Iowa team that was teetering on the edge of firing its coach. Unfortunately, they fell short, losing 77-70, which not only diminished their hopes but nearly sealed their fate.
From a statistical standpoint, Ohio State still resembles a team worthy of NCAA tournament consideration, ranking in the top 40 of predictive metrics and holding six Quadrant 1 wins, including impressive victories over Kentucky, Maryland, and Purdue. However, history was not in their favor. No team has ever received an at-large bid with only a two-game margin above .500, and the selection committee was unlikely to make an exception for this Buckeyes team.